Simulation of Population Growth and Distribution based on Centrality of Road Network
Amila Jayasinghe1, Nima Yoezer Tenzin2, C. Chethika Abenayake3, P. K. S. Mahanama4
1Amila Buddhika Jayasinghe, Department of Town and Country Planning, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka.
2Nima Yoezer Tenzin, Department of Town and Country Planning, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka.
3C. Chethika Abenayake, Department of Town and Country Planning, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka.
4P. K. S. Mahanama, Department of Town and Country Planning, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka.
Manuscript received on 05 September 2019 | Revised Manuscript received on 29 September 2019 | Manuscript Published on 29 June 2020 | PP: 389-393 | Volume-8 Issue-10S2 August 2019 | Retrieval Number: J107208810S19//2019©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijitee.J1072.08810S19
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open-access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: This study presents a method to model population growth of spatial units by incorporating measures of road network centrality instead of conventional statistical models of population growth. The proposed model enables the estimation of population growth based on the changes in the urban form represent by the changes in the road network and their centralities. The model has been calibrated and validated for the city of Colombo, Sri Lanka. The proposed model for simulating population growth rate by utilizing Closeness Centrality values and the rate of natural population growth as endogenous variables recorded an accepted level of predictability (R2= 0.87 and MdAPE < 10%). The method demonstrated in this research is an effective tool for understanding and directing the efficient allocation of intelligent road network infrastructure, urban planning and population modeling.
Keywords: Network Centrality Analysis, Population Growth, Simulation, Spatial Planning.
Scope of the Article: Network Modelling and Simulation